Sell-intent signals are observable indicators extracted from public regulatory filings, corporate disclosures, state registries, broker listings, hiring signals, and public news that suggest a company may be preparing for a sale, merger, or acquisition. MAI tracks 25+ proprietary signal dimensions across 6,000+ actively monitored US public companies and 10M+ private company profiles.
In an internal backtest against 340+ completed M&A samples, 99.4% of completed deals had at least one sell-intent signal before announcement. Using the Iron Triangle methodology — combining three specific signal families — MAI's strongest signal combinations reached 93.3% precision with 17.5x lift over the base rate and 44-day median lead time. These results are internal and are not presented as an independently audited benchmark.
These public-company signal families are extracted from SEC EDGAR filing submissions and checked every 15 minutes for new filings.
A company announces it is "exploring strategic alternatives" — corporate language for considering a sale, merger, or significant restructuring. Extracted from 8-K current report filings. This is one of the strongest standalone sell-intent signals.
A formal offer to purchase shares directly from shareholders, often preceding a full acquisition. Detected from SC TO (Schedule TO) filings submitted to the SEC.
Merger agreements, acquisition agreements, or definitive agreements filed as exhibits to 8-K filings. Indicates a deal has reached the definitive agreement stage.
An auditor's warning that a company may not survive as a going concern, indicating financial distress that often leads to distressed sales, asset liquidations, or bankruptcy acquisitions.
Schedule 13D filings indicating activist investors have taken significant positions (>5% ownership), often pushing for strategic changes including board seats, divestitures, or full company sales.
Large goodwill or asset write-downs that signal a company's assets are worth less than book value, often preceding restructuring, divestitures, or fire sales.
Rule 13e-3 filings indicating a public company is being taken private, typically through a management buyout (MBO) or private equity acquisition.
Disclosure of an unsolicited acquisition proposal from an external party, indicating active buyer interest in the company regardless of whether the board is receptive.
These signal families require deeper text analysis of filing content and are processed in a daily full scan with NLP verification.
Engagement of investment banks or financial advisors for strategic review purposes. When a company hires Goldman Sachs, Lazard, or Houlihan Lokey for a "strategic review," it's a strong signal that a formal sale process may follow.
Key executive departures — particularly CEO or CFO — that may signal instability, board-level disagreements about strategy, or preparation for an ownership transition.
Explicit disclosure of a sale process or agreement to sell the company. This includes both active sale processes ("the company has entered into a definitive agreement") and forward-looking statements about sale intent.
Letters of intent or indications of interest from potential acquirers, indicating that deal negotiations are actively underway. Often precedes a definitive agreement by weeks to months.
These signal families are sourced from non-EDGAR regulatory databases, public records, and specialized crawlers.
FTC Hart-Scott-Rodino early termination notices, indicating that antitrust clearance has been granted for a pending acquisition. This is one of the most definitive signals — it means a deal is already in motion and has passed regulatory review.
Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act filings indicating mass layoffs (60+ employees). Large layoffs often signal financial distress, pre-acquisition cost restructuring, or post-merger integration.
Natural language processing analysis of 10-K and 10-Q filings for M&A-related language patterns. MAI scans for 20 distinct textual patterns including references to "strategic review," "exploring alternatives," "potential transaction," and "change of control."
DEF 14A proxy statement parsing to identify shared board members between companies. Board interlocks can indicate strategic relationships, potential acquisition interest, or informal information channels between companies.
Raw signals are processed through MAI's decay-weighted, role-aware scoring engine:
Role classification — Each company is classified as a target (weight: 60), acquirer (weight: 0), or unknown (weight: 15). Acquirer signals are excluded from target identification scoring.
Signal decay — Signals lose weight over time at rates specific to their type. Strategic alternatives and advisor engagements decay over 180 days; tender offers decay in just 45 days. This ensures the score reflects current deal likelihood.
Iron Triangle bonus — When M&A language, strategic alternatives, and advisor engagement all converge on a single company, a convergence bonus is applied. This combination produced the strongest precision in MAI's internal backtests.
Hot threshold — Companies scoring ≥120 with at least 2 distinct signal types are classified as "hot." A single signal is capped at 30 points to prevent false positives from isolated events.
The result is a continuously updated review queue that separates high-conviction, mandate-relevant opportunities from background noise. Final actionability still depends on human deal judgment and mandate context.
For details on how MAI combines these signals for maximum predictive accuracy, see The Iron Triangle Methodology.
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